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LSL Acad HPI 

In 2003, Acadata pioneered use of Land Registry (LR) data for a mainstream house price index, launched by the Financial Times as the FTHPI. In 2010 LSL Property Services plc assumed the preparation costs from Acadata, rebranding the index as the LSL Property Services/Acadata HPI; now LSL Acad E&W HPI, LSL Acad Scotland HPI; also Acad Wales HPI launched 2011.

Using a 2002/3 purpose built “index of indices” forecasting methodology developed by Dr Stephen Satchell at the University of Cambridge and Dr George Christodoulakis, then at City University, Acadata resolved the problem that only c.38% of sales are promptly reported to LR; an insufficient sample to be definitive. For finality, our LSL Acad HPI “forecast” is updated monthly until every transaction is included. Effectively, an October LSL Acad E&W HPI “final” result, published with the December LSL Acad HPI “forecast” is definitive.

Is this untimely? Not compared with the highly reputed USA S&P Case-Shiller HPI for which e.g. the October 2012 was published on 26th December. Since this Case-Shiller index provided an average of the August, September and October results, the results were effectively centred on September, meaning a 3 month lag. An October LSL Acad HPI “final” is averaged over September, October and November, centred on October and published 11th January; a 2½ month lag. For serious users, we believe that only Land Registry and Registers of Scotland (RoS) provide the factual data requisite for definitive HPIs and that a delay before the results are final is a worthwhile price to pay.

Does our LSL Acad HPI “forecast” accurately anticipate the “final” results? How our “forecast” index is changed by additional transactions is shown in our monthly “Development of Forecasts” table. Is our “forecast” HPI the best guide to house price inflation? Our monthly Index Table shows the results of all major indices. Why is our LSL Acad E&W HPI average house price higher than that shown by the Land Registry HPI and the lenders? Our "Which House Price Index?" Briefing Note explains.

As FTHPI, our index was chosen by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the world's largest derivative exchange, for a possible residential house price derivative, put on hold by the 2007 financial crisis. LSL Acad E&W HPI is released for publication on the second Friday of every month. Our LSL Acad Scotland HPI and Acad Wales HPI follow for downloading from our website. The downloadable documents below include our latest News Release and full historic data series.



OCTOBER KEY LSL Acad E&W HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
265.9
Average House Price
£277,390
Monthly Change
0.7%
Annual Change
10.5%
 
MAIN POINTS
  • Property market shrugs off slowdown as sales surge 9% in October

  • Highest number of completed home sales in seven years – driven by an uplift in activity outside of London

  • House prices climb 0.7% (or £2,026) in a month, in response to demand

  • Prices fall at top end of London market, as prime central areas of the capital decouple from rest of country
 

SEPTEMBER KEY LSL Acad SCOTLAND HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
214.3
Average House Price
£163,630
Monthly Change
-0.4%
Annual Change
5.1%
 
MAIN POINTS
  • Home sales recover in September, but prices slip

  • Annual sales growth jumps to 15% in September as vote ends independence uncertainty

  • Average Scottish house prices fell 0.4% or £587 over the month, slowing annual change to just 5.1%

  • Prices drop at the top end of the market in Edinburgh and Aberdeenshire
 

AUGUST KEY Acad WALES HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
245.3
Average House Price
£159,485
Monthly Change
0.5%
Annual Change
4.0%
 
MAIN POINTS
  • Prices in Wales increase by £715 or 0.5% in August

  • Prices rise three months in succession, reversing earlier trend

  • Blaenau Gwent & Merthyr Tydfil recording the lowest prices in England & Wales

  • August sales remain at 4,050 - the highest monthly figure since December 2007
 

AVAILABLE HERE

LSL Acad E&W HPI October 14 published 14th November 14 News Release and accompanying:

LSL Acad Scotland HPI September 14 published 19th November 14 News Release and accompanying:

Acad Wales HPI August 14 published 22nd October 14 News Release and accompanying:

LSL Acad HPI Archive

Comparison of house price growth over the past 10 years

 

 

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