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LSL Acad HPI 

In 2003, Acadata pioneered use of Land Registry (LR) data for a mainstream house price index, launched by the Financial Times as the FTHPI. In 2010 LSL Property Services plc assumed the preparation costs from Acadata, rebranding the index as the LSL Property Services/Acadata HPI; now LSL Acad E&W HPI, Your Move Acad Scotland HPI; also Acad Wales HPI launched 2011.

Using a 2002/3 purpose built “index of indices” forecasting methodology developed by Dr Stephen Satchell at the University of Cambridge and Dr George Christodoulakis, then at City University, Acadata resolved the problem that only c.38% of sales are promptly reported to LR; an insufficient sample to be definitive. For finality, our LSL Acad HPI “forecast” is updated monthly until every transaction is included. Effectively, an October LSL Acad E&W HPI “final” result, published with the December LSL Acad HPI “forecast” is definitive.

Is this untimely? Not compared with the highly reputed USA S&P Case-Shiller HPI for which e.g. the October 2012 was published on 26th December. Since this Case-Shiller index provided an average of the August, September and October results, the results were effectively centred on September, meaning a 3 month lag. An October LSL Acad HPI “final” is averaged over September, October and November, centred on October and published 11th January; a 2½ month lag. For serious users, we believe that only Land Registry and Registers of Scotland (RoS) provide the factual data requisite for definitive HPIs and that a delay before the results are final is a worthwhile price to pay.

Does our LSL Acad HPI “forecast” accurately anticipate the “final” results? How our “forecast” index is changed by additional transactions is shown in our monthly “Development of Forecasts” table. Is our “forecast” HPI the best guide to house price inflation? Our monthly Index Table shows the results of all major indices. Why is our LSL Acad E&W HPI average house price higher than that shown by the Land Registry HPI and the lenders? Our "Which House Price Index?" Briefing Note explains.

As FTHPI, our index was chosen by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the world's largest derivative exchange, for a possible residential house price derivative, put on hold by the 2007 financial crisis. LSL Acad E&W HPI is released for publication on the second Friday of every month. Our Your Move Acad Scotland HPI and Acad Wales HPI follow for downloading from our website. The downloadable documents below include our latest News Release and full historic data series.



MARCH KEY LSL Acad E&W HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
267.7
Average House Price
£275,123
Monthly Change
0.2%
Annual Change
5.6%
 
MAIN POINTS
  • House price growth slowest since 2013

  • March sees smallest annual change in house prices for sixteen months, at 5.6% (£14,620)

  • Despite slower rises, average property prices across England and Wales set new record at £275,123

  • Slowdown more prevalent in the south as London hit by higher stamp duty and threat of Mansion Tax

  • Sales up 11.6% in March – but only half the typical monthly upswing expected at this time of year

  • In the run-up to the General Election, sales are down 5% year-on-year in Q1
 

FEBRUARY KEY YOUR MOVE Acad SCOTLAND HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
222.3
Average House Price
£169,742
Monthly Change
1.7%
Annual Change
6.0%
 
MAIN POINTS
  • Scottish house prices jump 1.7% in a month

  • Scottish property prices rise £2,900 during February, in biggest monthly jump since the 2007 boom years

  • Average house prices set new record high of £169,742 following strongest annual growth in five years

  • Aberdeen, Edinburgh, East Lothian and Angus join those setting new house price peaks in February

  • February sees spike in million-pound home sales before the introduction of new transaction tax

  • Overall home sales up 14% month-on-month – but still 4% below 2014 levels as election uncertainty bites
 

FEBRUARY KEY Acad WALES HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
252.6
Average House Price
£163,990
Monthly Change
0.5%
Annual Change
2.5%
 
MAIN POINTS
  • February house prices in Wales rise by £771 or +0.5%

  • Average annualised rate of change now +4.2% over the last twelve months

  • Peak prices in Bridgend and Vale of Glamorgan

  • Transaction numbers in February -1.9% lower than in January
 

AVAILABLE HERE

LSL Acad E&W HPI March 15 published 17th April 15 News Release and accompanying:

Your Move Acad Scotland HPI February 15 published 22nd April 15 News Release and accompanying:

Acad Wales HPI February 15 published 22nd April 15 News Release and accompanying:

LSL Acad HPI Archive

Comparison of house price growth over the past 10 years

 

 

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