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Deco

LSL Acad HPI 

In 2003, Acadata pioneered use of Land Registry (LR) data for a mainstream house price index, launched by the Financial Times as the FTHPI. In 2010 LSL Property Services plc assumed the preparation costs from Acadata, rebranding the index as the LSL Property Services/Acadata HPI; now LSL Acad E&W HPI, Your Move Acad Scotland HPI; also Acad Wales HPI launched 2011.

Using a 2002/3 purpose built “index of indices” forecasting methodology developed by Dr Stephen Satchell at the University of Cambridge and Dr George Christodoulakis, then at City University, Acadata resolved the problem that only c.38% of sales are promptly reported to LR; an insufficient sample to be definitive. For finality, our LSL Acad HPI “forecast” is updated monthly until every transaction is included. Effectively, an October LSL Acad E&W HPI “final” result, published with the December LSL Acad HPI “forecast” is definitive.

Is this untimely? Not compared with the highly reputed USA S&P Case-Shiller HPI for which e.g. the October 2012 was published on 26th December. Since this Case-Shiller index provided an average of the August, September and October results, the results were effectively centred on September, meaning a 3 month lag. An October LSL Acad HPI “final” is averaged over September, October and November, centred on October and published 11th January; a 2½ month lag. For serious users, we believe that only Land Registry and Registers of Scotland (RoS) provide the factual data requisite for definitive HPIs and that a delay before the results are final is a worthwhile price to pay.

Indices seek to provide an accurate measure of house price inflation. But our “Comparison of Indices” published in our monthly LSL Acad E&W HPI News Release shows by how much they frequently differ. Our “A 'True Measure' of House Price Inflation?" paper shows how closely or otherwise our LSL Acad E&W HPI “forecast” and other principal indices anticipate a calculated benchmark. Indices also measure the level of house prices as well as their monthly and annual changes. Our "Which House Price Index?" paper explains.

As FTHPI, our index was chosen by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the world's largest derivative exchange, for a possible residential house price derivative, put on hold by the 2007 financial crisis. LSL Acad E&W HPI is released for publication on the second Thursday of every month. Our Your Move Acad Scotland HPI and Acad Wales HPI follow for downloading from our website. The downloadable documents below include our latest News Release and full historic data series.



DECEMBER KEY LSL Acad E&W HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
283.1
Average House Price
£292,077
Monthly Change
0.6%
Annual Change
6.6%
 
MAIN POINTS
 
House prices increase £18,000 in 2015
 
  • Average house prices in England and Wales grew 6.6% annually, up £17,963 since December 2014 to reach £292,077

  • But property values in Central London fell by 8.7% on average during 2015, dragged down by higher Stamp Duty

  • Outside of these top five Central Boroughs, London experienced 11% boost in house prices year-on-year

  • East Midlands jumps to second in regional rankings, driven by a 10.6% annual rise in Nottingham’s house prices

  • Strongest December for sales since 2006, up 7.1% year-on-year as buyers compete for fewer homes on the market
 

NOVEMBER KEY YOUR MOVE Acad SCOTLAND HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
222.5
Average House Price
£169,850
Monthly Change
0.8%
Annual Change
2.4%
 
MAIN POINTS
 
Scottish house price growth outpaces England and Wales
 
  • Home values in Scotland jump 0.8% in November, twice the rate seen south of the border

  • Average Scottish property prices increased £45 a day during the month, advancing to £169,850

  • East Renfrewshire has biggest upswing, as new home developments lift prices 5.2% since October

  • Strongest November for home sales since 2007, defying seasonal slump with 13% year-on-year rise
 

NOVEMBER KEY Acad WALES HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
257.4
Average House Price
£168,156
Monthly Change
0.6%
Annual Change
2.5%
 
MAIN POINTS
 
November average prices in Wales at their highest since January 2008
 
  • Sales of flats fall -10% since November 2014

  • Number of transactions falls -12% since October

  • Year on year price rise in Wales is lowest amongst regions but prices likely to rise over next 3 months before 3% extra stamp duty takes effect

  • Blaenau Gwent has lowest price, but biggest rise in transaction numbers YTD over 2014
 

AVAILABLE HERE

LSL Acad E&W HPI December 15 published 14th January 16 News Release and accompanying:

Your Move Acad Scotland HPI November 15 published 20th January 16 News Release and accompanying:

Acad Wales HPI November 15 published 27th January 16 News Release and accompanying:

LSL Acad HPI Archive

Comparison of house price growth over the past 10 years

 

 

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