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LSL Acad HPI 

In 2003, Acadata pioneered use of Land Registry (LR) data for a mainstream house price index, launched by the Financial Times as the FTHPI. In 2010 LSL Property Services plc assumed the preparation costs from Acadata, rebranding the index as the LSL Property Services/Acadata HPI; now LSL Acad E&W HPI, LSL Acad Scotland HPI; also Acad Wales HPI launched 2011.

Using a 2002/3 purpose built “index of indices” forecasting methodology developed by Dr Stephen Satchell at the University of Cambridge and Dr George Christodoulakis, then at City University, Acadata resolved the problem that only c.38% of sales are promptly reported to LR; an insufficient sample to be definitive. For finality, our LSL Acad HPI “forecast” is updated monthly until every transaction is included. Effectively, an October LSL Acad E&W HPI “final” result, published with the December LSL Acad HPI “forecast” is definitive.

Is this untimely? Not compared with the highly reputed USA S&P Case-Shiller HPI for which e.g. the October 2012 was published on 26th December. Since this Case-Shiller index provided an average of the August, September and October results, the results were effectively centred on September, meaning a 3 month lag. An October LSL Acad HPI “final” is averaged over September, October and November, centred on October and published 11th January; a 2½ month lag. For serious users, we believe that only Land Registry and Registers of Scotland (RoS) provide the factual data requisite for definitive HPIs and that a delay before the results are final is a worthwhile price to pay.

Does our LSL Acad HPI “forecast” accurately anticipate the “final” results? How our “forecast” index is changed by additional transactions is shown in our monthly “Development of Forecasts” table. Is our “forecast” HPI the best guide to house price inflation? Our monthly Index Table shows the results of all major indices. Why is our LSL Acad E&W HPI average house price higher than that shown by the Land Registry HPI and the lenders? Our "Which House Price Index?" Briefing Note explains.

As FTHPI, our index was chosen by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the world's largest derivative exchange, for a possible residential house price derivative, put on hold by the 2007 financial crisis. LSL Acad E&W HPI is released for publication on the second Friday of every month. Our LSL Acad Scotland HPI and Acad Wales HPI follow for downloading from our website. The downloadable documents below include our latest News Release and full historic data series.



SEPTEMBER KEY LSL Acad E&W HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
264.5
Average House Price
£275,820
Monthly Change
0.5%
Annual Change
10.6%
 
MAIN POINTS
  • House prices up just 2% a year since crisis

  • South West becomes only the fourth region where prices exceed their pre-recession peak

  • House prices have climbed back from 2007/08 highs at average annual rate of 2.0% – less than CPIH

  • September sees smallest monthly increase in prices this year
 

AUGUST KEY LSL Acad SCOTLAND HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
215.1
Average House Price
£164,210
Monthly Change
-0.2%
Annual Change
5.7%
 
MAIN POINTS
  • House prices fall for first time in a year

  • Average Scottish house price drops 0.2% in August, as over half the country sees price falls

  • But strongest August in 7 years for house sales, despite monthly dip ahead of referendum

  • New peak prices reached in East Lothian and Aberdeen City, while values drop in Edinburgh
 

JULY KEY Acad WALES HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
243.6
Average House Price
£158,336
Monthly Change
0.1%
Annual Change
3.9%
 
MAIN POINTS
  • Prices in Wales increase by £124 or 0.1% in July

  • Twelve successive months of price rises on an annual basis

  • Conwy has highest three-month increase in sales of any authority in England & Wales

  • 4,000 Sales in July - highest monthly figure since December 2007
 

AVAILABLE HERE

LSL Acad E&W HPI September 14 published 10th October 14 News Release and accompanying:

LSL Acad Scotland HPI August 14 published 15th October 14 News Release and accompanying:

Acad Wales HPI July 14 published 24th September 14 News Release and accompanying:

LSL Acad HPI Archive

Comparison of house price growth over the past 10 years

 

 

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