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LSL Acad HPI 

In 2003, Acadata pioneered use of Land Registry (LR) data for a mainstream house price index, launched by the Financial Times as the FTHPI. In 2010 LSL Property Services plc assumed the preparation costs from Acadata, rebranding the index as the LSL Property Services/Acadata HPI; now LSL Acad E&W HPI, LSL Acad Scotland HPI; also Acad Wales HPI launched 2011.

Using a 2002/3 purpose built “index of indices” forecasting methodology developed by Dr Stephen Satchell at the University of Cambridge and Dr George Christodoulakis, then at City University, Acadata resolved the problem that only c.38% of sales are promptly reported to LR; an insufficient sample to be definitive. For finality, our LSL Acad HPI “forecast” is updated monthly until every transaction is included. Effectively, an October LSL Acad E&W HPI “final” result, published with the December LSL Acad HPI “forecast” is definitive.

Is this untimely? Not compared with the highly reputed USA S&P Case-Shiller HPI for which e.g. the October 2012 was published on 26th December. Since this Case-Shiller index provided an average of the August, September and October results, the results were effectively centred on September, meaning a 3 month lag. An October LSL Acad HPI “final” is averaged over September, October and November, centred on October and published 11th January; a 2½ month lag. For serious users, we believe that only Land Registry and Registers of Scotland (RoS) provide the factual data requisite for definitive HPIs and that a delay before the results are final is a worthwhile price to pay.

Does our LSL Acad HPI “forecast” accurately anticipate the “final” results? How our “forecast” index is changed by additional transactions is shown in our monthly “Development of Forecasts” table. Is our “forecast” HPI the best guide to house price inflation? Our monthly Index Table shows the results of all major indices. Why is our LSL Acad E&W HPI average house price higher than that shown by the Land Registry HPI and the lenders? Our "Which House Price Index?" Briefing Note explains.

As FTHPI, our index was chosen by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the world's largest derivative exchange, for a possible residential house price derivative, put on hold by the 2007 financial crisis. LSL Acad E&W HPI is released for publication on the second Friday of every month. Our LSL Acad Scotland HPI and Acad Wales HPI follow for downloading from our website. The downloadable documents below include our latest News Release and full historic data series.



JUNE KEY LSL Acad E&W HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
257.4
Average House Price
£268,637
Monthly Change
0.7%
Annual Change
9.6%
 
MAIN POINTS
  • House prices see highest annual rise in four years, but rate of growth slowing

  • Average house prices climb £23,443 or 9.6% in the past year – 5.2% excluding London and South East

  • On a monthly basis, growth cools to 0.7% in June – dropping to 0.1% without London and South East

  • London house prices up 15.6% annually, but prices falling in Westminster and the City

  • First-time buyers strengthen recovery nationwide, with new peak prices set in South East and East Anglia
 

MAY KEY LSL Acad SCOTLAND HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
212.6
Average House Price
£162,302
Monthly Change
0.5%
Annual Change
4.3%
 
MAIN POINTS
  • Scottish house prices climb £6,750 in the last year

  • May marks longest period of sustained monthly price growth since before the crisis

  • Recovery strengthens across the country, with new price record set in Aberdeenshire

  • But sales fall 3% in May, as the market adjusts to MMR and stricter borrowing criteria
 

MAY KEY Acad WALES HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
243.0
Average House Price
£157,958
Monthly Change
-0.3%
Annual Change
3.6%
 
MAIN POINTS
  • Prices in Wales fall by -0.3% or £503 in May

  • Now three successive months of price drops

  • But annually prices rise in ten of last twelve months - annual rise now +3.6%

  • Average 2014 monthly transactions 3,102 - 15,510 since the start of the year
 

AVAILABLE HERE

LSL Acad E&W HPI June 14 published 11th July 14 News Release and accompanying:

LSL Acad Scotland HPI May 14 published 16th July 14 News Release and accompanying:

Acad Wales HPI May 14 published 23rd July 14 News Release and accompanying:

LSL Acad HPI Archive

Comparison of house price growth over the past 10 years

 

 

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