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LSL Acad HPI 

In 2003, Acadata pioneered use of Land Registry (LR) data for a mainstream house price index, launched by the Financial Times as the FTHPI. In 2010 LSL Property Services plc assumed the preparation costs from Acadata, rebranding the index as the LSL Property Services/Acadata HPI; now LSL Acad E&W HPI, Your Move Acad Scotland HPI; also Acad Wales HPI launched 2011.

Using a 2002/3 purpose built “index of indices” forecasting methodology developed by Dr Stephen Satchell at the University of Cambridge and Dr George Christodoulakis, then at City University, Acadata resolved the problem that only c.38% of sales are promptly reported to LR; an insufficient sample to be definitive. For finality, our LSL Acad HPI “forecast” is updated monthly until every transaction is included. Effectively, an October LSL Acad E&W HPI “final” result, published with the December LSL Acad HPI “forecast” is definitive.

Is this untimely? Not compared with the highly reputed USA S&P Case-Shiller HPI for which e.g. the October 2012 was published on 26th December. Since this Case-Shiller index provided an average of the August, September and October results, the results were effectively centred on September, meaning a 3 month lag. An October LSL Acad HPI “final” is averaged over September, October and November, centred on October and published 11th January; a 2½ month lag. For serious users, we believe that only Land Registry and Registers of Scotland (RoS) provide the factual data requisite for definitive HPIs and that a delay before the results are final is a worthwhile price to pay.

Indices seek to provide an accurate measure of house price inflation. But our “Comparison of Indices” published in our monthly LSL Acad E&W HPI News Release shows by how much they frequently differ. Our “A 'True Measure' of House Price Inflation?" paper shows how closely or otherwise our LSL Acad E&W HPI “forecast” and other principal indices anticipate a calculated benchmark. Indices also measure the level of house prices as well as their monthly and annual changes. Our "Which House Price Index?" paper explains.

As FTHPI, our index was chosen by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the world's largest derivative exchange, for a possible residential house price derivative, put on hold by the 2007 financial crisis. LSL Acad E&W HPI is released for publication on the second Thursday of every month. Our Your Move Acad Scotland HPI and Acad Wales HPI follow for downloading from our website. The downloadable documents below include our latest News Release and full historic data series.



MARCH KEY LSL Acad E&W HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
286.2
Average House Price
£291,650
Monthly Change
0.6%
Annual Change
6.9%
 
MAIN POINTS
 
Home sales in 30% spring upswing – ahead of stamp duty surcharge
 
  • Strongest March since 2007 for home sales – a nine year record – with 80,000 properties sold during the month

  • House price growth accelerates, up 6.9% annually, with a typical home now worth £18,745 more than a year earlier

  • London market takes off again, with fastest growth of any region – as house prices rise 8.2% (£44,548) year-on-year

  • Bath & NE Somerset sees the largest March pick-up in property prices, climbing 5.3% (£18,603) month-on-month
 

FEBRUARY KEY YOUR MOVE Acad SCOTLAND HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
220.1
Average House Price
£168,020
Monthly Change
-1.0%
Annual Change
-2.1%
 
MAIN POINTS
 
First dip in house prices in eight months, despite surge in sales
 
  • Average property prices in Scotland fall 1.0% from January – the first monthly drop seen since June 2015

  • Comes despite strongest February for home sales since 2008, up 19% year-on-year after buy-to-let flurry

  • But hesitation at the higher end of market before upcoming elections knocks Edinburgh off the top spot

  • Midlothian the only area to break a record for property values in February, surpassing pre-crisis peak
 

FEBRUARY KEY Acad WALES HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
261.8
Average House Price
£171,232
Monthly Change
1.0%
Annual Change
3.1%
 
MAIN POINTS
 
1.0% Price rise is biggest since October 2014
 
  • Highest February transaction total since 2007 - effect of new tax regime?

  • Cardiff and Isle of Anglesey set peak prices

  • Highest (Monmouthshire)/lowest (Blaenau Gwent) prices vary by a factor of 2.76

  • Jan/Feb transaction numbers in Pembrokeshire fall -31%, this year compared to last
 

AVAILABLE HERE

LSL Acad E&W HPI March 16 published 14th April 16 News Release and accompanying:

Your Move Acad Scotland HPI February 16 published 20th April 16 News Release and accompanying:

Acad Wales HPI February 16 published 27th April 16 News Release and accompanying:

LSL Acad HPI Archive

Comparison of house price growth over the past 10 years

 

 

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