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Deco

LSL Acad HPI 

In 2003, Acadata pioneered use of Land Registry (LR) data for a mainstream house price index, launched by the Financial Times as the FTHPI. In 2010 LSL Property Services plc assumed the preparation costs from Acadata, rebranding the index as the LSL Property Services/Acadata HPI; now LSL Acad E&W HPI, Your Move Acad Scotland HPI; also Acad Wales HPI launched 2011.

Using a 2002/3 purpose built “index of indices” forecasting methodology developed by Dr Stephen Satchell at the University of Cambridge and Dr George Christodoulakis, then at City University, Acadata resolved the problem that only c.38% of sales are promptly reported to LR; an insufficient sample to be definitive. For finality, our LSL Acad HPI “forecast” is updated monthly until every transaction is included. Effectively, an October LSL Acad E&W HPI “final” result, published with the December LSL Acad HPI “forecast” is definitive.

Is this untimely? Not compared with the highly reputed USA S&P Case-Shiller HPI for which e.g. the October 2012 was published on 26th December. Since this Case-Shiller index provided an average of the August, September and October results, the results were effectively centred on September, meaning a 3 month lag. An October LSL Acad HPI “final” is averaged over September, October and November, centred on October and published 11th January; a 2½ month lag. For serious users, we believe that only Land Registry and Registers of Scotland (RoS) provide the factual data requisite for definitive HPIs and that a delay before the results are final is a worthwhile price to pay.

Does our LSL Acad HPI “forecast” accurately anticipate the “final” results? How our “forecast” index is changed by additional transactions is shown in our monthly “Development of Forecasts” table. Is our “forecast” HPI the best guide to house price inflation? Our monthly Index Table shows the results of all major indices. Why is our LSL Acad E&W HPI average house price higher than that shown by the Land Registry HPI and the lenders? Our "Which House Price Index?" Briefing Note explains.

As FTHPI, our index was chosen by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the world's largest derivative exchange, for a possible residential house price derivative, put on hold by the 2007 financial crisis. LSL Acad E&W HPI is released for publication on the second Friday of every month. Our Your Move Acad Scotland HPI and Acad Wales HPI follow for downloading from our website. The downloadable documents below include our latest News Release and full historic data series.



JANUARY KEY LSL Acad E&W HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
266.3
Average House Price
£277,857
Monthly Change
0.3%
Annual Change
7.5%
 
MAIN POINTS
  • House price growth slows to ten-month low

  • Capital leads downturn with monthly price fall, offering respite to London buyers as market stabilizes

  • Overall, prices start climbing again in January, with values in the North experiencing biggest boost

  • Strongest sales growth found in North and Yorkshire due to surging first-time buyer demand
 

DECEMBER KEY YOUR MOVE Acad SCOTLAND HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
216.2
Average House Price
£165,075
Monthly Change
0.3%
Annual Change
4.2%
 
MAIN POINTS
  • Record December for house prices

  • Scottish house prices climb £6,700 in twelve months to hit a six-year high, nearing pre-recession peak

  • Total home sales in 2014 11% higher than 2013 – led by the first-time buyer market

  • Defying lower oil prices, property values in Aberdeen see some of strongest annual growth – up 10.0%

  • Average house prices in Aberdeenshire and the Shetland Islands both reach new records in December
 

DECEMBER KEY Acad WALES HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
251.5
Average House Price
£163,510
Monthly Change
0.2%
Annual Change
3.9%
 
MAIN POINTS
  • Welsh house prices rise by £327 (or +0.2%) in December

  • Seventeen months of positive annualised rate of change

  • Cardiff one of nine areas in England & Wales with peak prices

  • Over the year, average monthly transactions 17% higher than in 2013
 

AVAILABLE HERE

LSL Acad E&W HPI January 15 published 13th February 15 News Release and accompanying:

Your Move Acad Scotland HPI December 14 published 18th February 15 News Release and accompanying:

Acad Wales HPI December 14 published 25th February 15 News Release and accompanying:

LSL Acad HPI Archive

Comparison of house price growth over the past 10 years

 

 

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