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Deco

LSL Acad HPI 

In 2003, Acadata pioneered use of Land Registry (LR) data for a mainstream house price index, launched by the Financial Times as the FTHPI. In 2010 LSL Property Services plc assumed the preparation costs from Acadata, rebranding the index as the LSL Property Services/Acadata HPI; now LSL Acad E&W HPI, Your Move Acad Scotland HPI; also Acad Wales HPI launched 2011.

Using a 2002/3 purpose built “index of indices” forecasting methodology developed by Dr Stephen Satchell at the University of Cambridge and Dr George Christodoulakis, then at City University, Acadata resolved the problem that only c.38% of sales are promptly reported to LR; an insufficient sample to be definitive. For finality, our LSL Acad HPI “forecast” is updated monthly until every transaction is included. Effectively, an October LSL Acad E&W HPI “final” result, published with the December LSL Acad HPI “forecast” is definitive.

Is this untimely? Not compared with the highly reputed USA S&P Case-Shiller HPI for which e.g. the October 2012 was published on 26th December. Since this Case-Shiller index provided an average of the August, September and October results, the results were effectively centred on September, meaning a 3 month lag. An October LSL Acad HPI “final” is averaged over September, October and November, centred on October and published 11th January; a 2½ month lag. For serious users, we believe that only Land Registry and Registers of Scotland (RoS) provide the factual data requisite for definitive HPIs and that a delay before the results are final is a worthwhile price to pay.

Does our LSL Acad HPI “forecast” accurately anticipate the “final” results? How our “forecast” index is changed by additional transactions is shown in our monthly “Development of Forecasts” table. Is our “forecast” HPI the best guide to house price inflation? Our monthly Index Table shows the results of all major indices. Why is our LSL Acad E&W HPI average house price higher than that shown by the Land Registry HPI and the lenders? Our "Which House Price Index?" Briefing Note explains.

As FTHPI, our index was chosen by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the world's largest derivative exchange, for a possible residential house price derivative, put on hold by the 2007 financial crisis. LSL Acad E&W HPI is released for publication on the second Friday of every month. Our Your Move Acad Scotland HPI and Acad Wales HPI follow for downloading from our website. The downloadable documents below include our latest News Release and full historic data series.



DECEMBER KEY LSL Acad E&W HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
267.4
Average House Price
£278,997
Monthly Change
0.0%
Annual Change
9.6%
 
MAIN POINTS
  • London & South East hold back house price growth

  • Annual growth retreats back into single figures, as house prices pause in December

  • Values in London & the South East cooling, while price growth across other regions remains steady

  • Growth accelerates at top end of the market in 2014, but price rises slowing at bottom rungs

  • Total home sales across 2014 up 18% year-on-year, as stamp duty reforms boost activity in December
 

NOVEMBER KEY YOUR MOVE Acad SCOTLAND HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
215.6
Average House Price
£164,607
Monthly Change
-0.1%
Annual Change
4.3%
 
MAIN POINTS
  • House prices dip after post-referendum boost

  • Scottish property prices fell 0.1% in November, reversing October’s uplift in the wake of the vote

  • Slowdown in annual growth to 4.3%, less than half the 10.6% yearly rise across England & Wales

  • Sales in November up 6% annually – but quarter of all activity concentrated in Edinburgh and Glasgow

  • Prices in Midlothian see highest annual jump at 10%, following 30% leap in local first-time buyer sales
 

NOVEMBER KEY Acad WALES HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
251.4
Average House Price
£163,469
Monthly Change
0.2%
Annual Change
4.4%
 
MAIN POINTS
  • Welsh house prices increase by £347 (or +0.2%) in November

  • Sixteen months of positive annualised rate of change

  • Cardiff house prices at a peak this month

  • Average monthly transactions running at 3,555 since January 2014
 

AVAILABLE HERE

LSL Acad E&W HPI December 14 published 9th January 15 News Release and accompanying:

Your Move Acad Scotland HPI November 14 published 14th January 15 News Release and accompanying:

Acad Wales HPI November 14 published 21st January 15 News Release and accompanying:

LSL Acad HPI Archive

Comparison of house price growth over the past 10 years

 

 

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