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LSL Acad HPI 

In 2003, Acadata pioneered use of Land Registry (LR) data for a mainstream house price index, launched by the Financial Times as the FTHPI. In 2010 LSL Property Services plc assumed the preparation costs from Acadata, rebranding the index as the LSL Property Services/Acadata HPI; now LSL Acad E&W HPI, LSL Acad Scotland HPI; also Acad Wales HPI launched 2011.

Using a 2002/3 purpose built “index of indices” forecasting methodology developed by Dr Stephen Satchell at the University of Cambridge and Dr George Christodoulakis, then at City University, Acadata resolved the problem that only c.38% of sales are promptly reported to LR; an insufficient sample to be definitive. For finality, our LSL Acad HPI “forecast” is updated monthly until every transaction is included. Effectively, an October LSL Acad E&W HPI “final” result, published with the December LSL Acad HPI “forecast” is definitive.

Is this untimely? Not compared with the highly reputed USA S&P Case-Shiller HPI for which e.g. the October 2012 was published on 26th December. Since this Case-Shiller index provided an average of the August, September and October results, the results were effectively centred on September, meaning a 3 month lag. An October LSL Acad HPI “final” is averaged over September, October and November, centred on October and published 11th January; a 2½ month lag. For serious users, we believe that only Land Registry and Registers of Scotland (RoS) provide the factual data requisite for definitive HPIs and that a delay before the results are final is a worthwhile price to pay.

Does our LSL Acad HPI “forecast” accurately anticipate the “final” results? How our “forecast” index is changed by additional transactions is shown in our monthly “Development of Forecasts” table. Is our “forecast” HPI the best guide to house price inflation? Our monthly Index Table shows the results of all major indices. Why is our LSL Acad E&W HPI average house price higher than that shown by the Land Registry HPI and the lenders? Our "Which House Price Index?" Briefing Note explains.

As FTHPI, our index was chosen by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the world's largest derivative exchange, for a possible residential house price derivative, put on hold by the 2007 financial crisis. LSL Acad E&W HPI is released for publication on the second Friday of every month. Our LSL Acad Scotland HPI and Acad Wales HPI follow for downloading from our website. The downloadable documents below include our latest News Release and full historic data series.



AUGUST KEY LSL Acad E&W HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
263.0
Average House Price
£274,302
Monthly Change
0.9%
Annual Change
10.7%
 
MAIN POINTS
  • Mind the gap: London and South East skew average house prices by record £89,000

  • Overall average house price now £274,302 – but only £185,496 omitting London and the South East

  • Represents the biggest price disparity since 1995 due to cooling house prices in regions

  • Slowdown outside of London and the South East as annual rise drops to 4.3%

  • Contrasts with average house price growth of 10.7% in past year across all of England & Wales
 

JULY KEY LSL Acad SCOTLAND HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
215.4
Average House Price
£164,483
Monthly Change
0.2%
Annual Change
5.7%
 
MAIN POINTS
  • House sales reach six-year high, but slowing supply on the horizon

  • Monthly house price growth slows to 0.2%, as over half of Scotland see prices drop in July

  • Home values still 0.6% off 2008 peak, while sales remain 30% lower than pre-crisis levels

  • But first-time buyer activity fuels new record prices in Aberdeenshire and Edinburgh
 

JUNE KEY Acad WALES HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
242.2
Average House Price
£157,383
Monthly Change
-0.1%
Annual Change
3.7%
 
MAIN POINTS
  • Prices in Wales fall by £156 or -0.1% in June

  • Prices drop four months in a row, but annual change remains positive

  • Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil only areas in UK with average prices below £100k

  • 3,650 Transactions in June, 100 fewer than in May
 

AVAILABLE HERE

LSL Acad E&W HPI August 14 published 12th September 14 News Release and accompanying:

LSL Acad Scotland HPI July 14 published 17th September 14 News Release and accompanying:

Acad Wales HPI June 14 published 20th August 14 News Release and accompanying:

LSL Acad HPI Archive

Comparison of house price growth over the past 10 years

 

 

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