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Deco

LSL Acad HPI 

In 2003, Acadata pioneered use of Land Registry (LR) data for a mainstream house price index, launched by the Financial Times as the FTHPI. In 2010 LSL Property Services plc assumed the preparation costs from Acadata, rebranding the index as the LSL Property Services/Acadata HPI; now LSL Acad E&W HPI, Your Move Acad Scotland HPI; also Acad Wales HPI launched 2011.

Using a 2002/3 purpose built “index of indices” forecasting methodology developed by Dr Stephen Satchell at the University of Cambridge and Dr George Christodoulakis, then at City University, Acadata resolved the problem that only c.38% of sales are promptly reported to LR; an insufficient sample to be definitive. For finality, our LSL Acad HPI “forecast” is updated monthly until every transaction is included. Effectively, an October LSL Acad E&W HPI “final” result, published with the December LSL Acad HPI “forecast” is definitive.

Is this untimely? Not compared with the highly reputed USA S&P Case-Shiller HPI for which e.g. the October 2012 was published on 26th December. Since this Case-Shiller index provided an average of the August, September and October results, the results were effectively centred on September, meaning a 3 month lag. An October LSL Acad HPI “final” is averaged over September, October and November, centred on October and published 11th January; a 2½ month lag. For serious users, we believe that only Land Registry and Registers of Scotland (RoS) provide the factual data requisite for definitive HPIs and that a delay before the results are final is a worthwhile price to pay.

Indices seek to provide an accurate measure of house price inflation. But our “Comparison of Indices” published in our monthly LSL Acad E&W HPI News Release shows by how much they frequently differ. Our “Annual comparison of Indices" paper shows how closely or otherwise our LSL Acad E&W HPI “forecast” and other principal indices anticipate a calculated benchmark. Indices also measure the level of house prices as well as their monthly and annual changes. Our "Which House Price Index?" paper explains.

As FTHPI, our index was chosen by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the world's largest derivative exchange, for a possible residential house price derivative, put on hold by the 2007 financial crisis. LSL Acad E&W HPI is released for publication on the second Friday of every month. Our Your Move Acad Scotland HPI and Acad Wales HPI follow for downloading from our website. The downloadable documents below include our latest News Release and full historic data series.



APRIL KEY LSL Acad E&W HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
267.8
Average House Price
£275,961
Monthly Change
0.2%
Annual Change
5.3%
 
MAIN POINTS
  • House price growth in South East and East Anglia overtakes London

  • For the first time in four and a half years, London no longer leads the regions – beaten by South East and East Anglia, which are experiencing stronger year-on-year price rises than the capital

  • Across England and Wales, house price growth picks up on a monthly basis in April, climbing 0.2%

  • But the annual rate of property price growth has halved since last summer, down to 5.3% in April

  • Q1 sales down 10% before the General Election, but new certainty likely to reset the balance
 

MARCH KEY YOUR MOVE Acad SCOTLAND HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
234.3
Average House Price
£178,930
Monthly Change
5.4%
Annual Change
11.2%
 
MAIN POINTS
  • Scottish house prices rise twice as fast as in England & Wales

  • House prices in Scotland rise 11.2% in the last twelve months – twice that seen in England & Wales (5.7%)

  • In a single month, average property prices in Scotland rise £9,200 ahead of enforcement of new tax

  • Number of transactions completed in March up 29% on February, mainly at the top end of the market

  • 36 homes worth £1 million or more change hands in March, the highest number ever in a single month

  • Edinburgh and suburbs see especially strong local surges, with East Lothian prices up 11.8% in one month
 

MARCH KEY Acad WALES HPI STATISTICS
 
Index
252.8
Average House Price
£164,616
Monthly Change
0.1%
Annual Change
2.9%
 
MAIN POINTS
  • Monthly increase falls to +0.1% or £166 in March

  • Average annualised rate of change +2.9%, down from +5.7% in August 2014

  • Peak price of £241,159 in the Vale of Glamorgan

  • Blaenau Gwent lowest price in England & Wales, and 70% below the overall average
 

AVAILABLE HERE

LSL Acad E&W HPI April 15 published 15th May 15 News Release and accompanying:

Your Move Acad Scotland HPI March 15 published 2oth May 15 News Release and accompanying:

Acad Wales HPI March 15 published 20th May 15 News Release and accompanying:

LSL Acad HPI Archive

Comparison of house price growth over the past 10 years

 

 

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