Press Release 6th October 2004

 

FT House Price Index September 2004

 

The FT House Price Index, calculated by Acadametrics to foreshadow the Land Registry results, rose by 1.5% in September whilst the annual rate fell to 16.8%.

 

The FT House Price Index shows that, contrary to reports last month of static or falling house prices in August, the monthly increases in house prices since June have averaged 1 %, lower than the 2% increases over the same period last year. The annual rate of house price inflation has reduced slowly, from a peak of 18.0% in June (first reported as 18.1% on 3rd July), to 16.8 % in September. With prices having increased by around 1% in the first half of this year the current trend in the FT House Price Index suggests that the annual growth rate for 2004 will be around 14%.

 

We estimate the FT House Price Index, on a seasonally adjusted basis, as follows:

 

 

 

House Price

Index

Monthly Change %

Annual Change %

September 2004

185,814

178.2

1.5

16.8

August 2004

182,993

175.5

1.4

17.3

July 2004

180,430

173.0

1.5

18.0

June 2004

177,810

170.5

1.4

18.0

May 2004

175,318

168.1

1.0

17.5

April 2004

173,600

166.5

0.9

16.7

 

 

While most indices tend to oscillate from month to month, particularly when the market is turning, the FT House Price Index has again led the way in depicting a trend and also presents a clear picture of an emerging slowdown in the annual rate of house price inflation.

 

The FT House Price Index shows that the pattern of summer monthly house price rises, observed in 2003, is now being repeated in 2004.

 

Also see www.ft.com/houseprices

www.acadametrics.co.uk