Press Release 8th June 2004

 

FT House Price Index May 2004

 

The FT House Price Index, calculated by Acadametrics, rose by 0.7% in May to an annual rate of 17.7%.

 

The monthly rate of increase in the FT House Price Index, over the six months from December, has averaged around 1%. This contrasts with an average of around 2% during the late summer/autumn of 2003, showing that monthly house price inflation is easing. This is despite the fact that the annual rate rose again in May, reflecting the relative weakness in the market in the Spring last year. We expect the annual rate to fall during the summer, reflecting the strong monthly house price rises during the equivalent months last year.

 

We expect the Land Registry second quarter results, to be published in August, to show an increase in the annual growth rate from 14.1% in the first quarter to around 17 1/2 % in the second quarter of 2004.

 

We estimate the FT House Price Index, on a seasonally adjusted basis, as follows:

 

House Price

Index

Monthly Change %

Annual Change %

May           2004

175,517

168.3

0.7

17.7

April          2004

174,297

167.2

0.8

17.2

March        2004

172,862

165.8

1.2

16.0

February   2004

170,770

163.8

1.0

14.5

January     2004

169,026

162.1

1.0

13.3

December  2003

167,383

160.5

1.2

13.1

 

 

Our accompanying Index Table shows the FT House Price Index as the first index recording the steady increase in the annual growth rate which began in August last year and is reflected in the Land Registry data. The FT House Price Index predicted the recent quarterly Land Registry outcomes and is a smooth series, with minimal monthly variations. During the past six months, the FT House Price Index has had average monthly increases below those of the Halifax, Nationwide and Rightmove and above those of ODPM and Hometrack.

   

Also see www.ft.com/houseprices

http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/