3rd February 2005

 

FT House Price Index January 2005

 

The January 2005 FT House Price Index shows a continuing steady fall in the annual rate of house price inflation down to 11.0% this month. This fall looks set to continue during the first quarter 2005. The seasonally adjusted monthly rate of house price inflation for January was 0.5%, maintaining the level of the fourth quarter 2004. The FT House Price Index is calculated by Acadametrics and foreshadows the Land Registry, the only complete measure of domestic property prices. We expect the Land Registry data, to be published later this month, will show that house prices for the fourth quarter of 2004 were around 12% higher than a year ago.

 

We estimate the FT House Price Index, on a seasonally adjusted basis, as follows:

 

 

 

House Price

Index

Monthly Change %

Annual Change %

January 2005

187,026

179.4

0.5

11.0

December 2004

186,069

178.4

0.6

11.4

November 2004

185,025

177.4

0.0

12.0

October 2004

184,998

177.4

0.6

13.9

September 2004

183,832

176.3

0.8

15.6

August 2004

182,440

175.0

1.4

16.9

 

 

Most indices will tend to oscillate from one month to another, especially when the market is turning. This may be the consequence of month to month volatility, the lack of seasonal adjustment in some cases, or limited coverage. The FT House Price Index depicts the underlying trend. This continues to show a steady decline in the annual rate of house price inflation since June 2004 and a monthly rate of house price growth of less than 1% since last August.

 

 

 

 

 

FT House Price Index results to Sept 04 are based on Land Registry published data, smoothed, seasonally adjusted but not mix adjusted, revised with updated LR results as available. From Oct 04 to current month, FT House Price Index monthly forecasts of updated LR house price results are shown.

 

Also see www.ft.com/houseprices

www.acadametrics.co.uk