3rd February 2005
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FT House Price Index – January 2005
The January 2005 FT House Price Index shows a continuing steady fall in the annual rate of house price inflation down to 11.0% this month. This fall looks set to continue during the first quarter 2005. The seasonally adjusted monthly rate of house price inflation for January was 0.5%, maintaining the level of the fourth quarter 2004. The FT House Price Index is calculated by Acadametrics and foreshadows the Land Registry, the only complete measure of domestic property prices. We expect the Land Registry data, to be published later this month, will show that house prices for the fourth quarter of 2004 were around 12% higher than a year ago.
We estimate the FT House Price Index, on a seasonally adjusted basis,
as follows:
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|
House
Price |
Index |
Monthly
Change % |
Annual
Change % |
|
January 2005 |
£187,026 |
179.4 |
0.5 |
11.0 |
|
December 2004 |
£186,069 |
178.4 |
0.6 |
11.4 |
|
November 2004 |
£185,025 |
177.4 |
0.0 |
12.0 |
|
October 2004 |
£184,998 |
177.4 |
0.6 |
13.9 |
|
September 2004 |
£183,832 |
176.3 |
0.8 |
15.6 |
|
August 2004 |
£182,440 |
175.0 |
1.4 |
16.9 |
Most indices will tend to oscillate from one month to another, especially when the market is turning. This may be the consequence of month to month volatility, the lack of seasonal adjustment in some cases, or limited coverage. The FT House Price Index depicts the underlying trend. This continues to show a steady decline in the annual rate of house price inflation since June 2004 and a monthly rate of house price growth of less than 1% since last August.
FT House Price Index results to Sept 04 are
based on Land Registry published data, smoothed, seasonally adjusted but not
mix adjusted, revised with updated LR results as available. From Oct 04 to
current month, FT House Price Index monthly forecasts of updated LR house price
results are shown.
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Also see www.ft.com/houseprices |