FT House Price Index – January 2004

 

 

The FT House Price Index, calculated by Acadametrics, rose by 0.7% in January to an annual rate of 13.1%, broadly unchanged from November and December. This is the lowest, seasonally adjusted, monthly increase since May last year but the annual rate remains stable at around 13%.

 

We expect the HM Land Registry fourth quarter results, to be published next week, to show an annual rate of just below 13%. Thus their Q4 rate will be somewhat higher than the rates seen in Q2 and Q3 of 2003. HM Land Registry, unlike the lender-based indices, records cash purchases.

 

Applying our monthly percentage changes, we estimate the FT House Price Index, on a seasonally adjusted basis, as follows:

 

 

 

House Price

Index

Monthly Change %

Annual Change %

January     2004

£168,808

161.9

0.7

13.1

December  2003

£167,680

160.8

1.2

13.3

November  2003

£165,638

158.8

1.7

12.8

October      2003

£162,853

156.2

2.1

12.1

September 2003

£159,453

152.9

1.9

10.9

August       2003

£156,498

150.1

2.2

10.5

 

 

Inflation in the housing market seems to be steadying with the relative stability of the FT House Price Index in recent months contrasting with the more volatile figures from the major lenders. On an annual basis, Halifax and Nationwide both record results above the FT House Price Index with ODPM and Rightmove somewhat lower. Hometrack’s results are much lower still.

 

For further information see www.ft.com/houseprices.

 

 

 

4th February 2004

www.acadametrics.co.uk