7th January 2005

 

FT House Price Index December 2004

 

The December 2004 FT House Price Index continues to show a steady fall in annual house price inflation. For December, the annual rate of house price inflation was 12.7%. This is the lowest annual rate since November 2003. The seasonally adjusted monthly rate of house price inflation for December was 0.9%. The rate of house price increases in the final quarter was the lowest since the beginning of 2003. The Index is calculated by Acadametrics to foreshadow the Land Registry, the only complete measure of domestic property prices, whose fourth quarter results will be published in February.

 

We estimate the FT House Price Index, on a seasonally adjusted basis, as follows:

 

 

 

House Price

Index

Monthly Change %

Annual Change %

December 2004

188,241

180.5

0.9

12.7

November 2004

186,470

178.8

0.5

12.8

October 2004

185,472

177.9

0.8

14.2

September 2004

183,972

176.4

0.8

15.7

August 2004

182,452

175.0

1.4

16.9

July 2004

179,908

172.5

1.4

17.7

 

 

Most indices tend to oscillate from one month to another, especially when the market is turning. During 2004, however, the FT House Price Index has depicted the underlying trend. This trend has shown a steady decline in the annual rate of house price inflation from June, despite the fact that the monthly rate of inflation strengthened from May and reached a peak in August. The Land Registry and the FT House Price Index have recorded no falls in house prices in any month during 2004. The monthly falls in other indices may be the consequence of month to month volatility, the lack of seasonal adjustment in some cases, or limited coverage.

 

 

 

 

 

 

FT House Price Index results to Sept 04 are based on Land Registry published data, smoothed, seasonally adjusted but not mix adjusted, revised with updated LR results as available. From Oct 04 to current month, FT House Price Index monthly forecasts of updated LR house price results are shown.

 

Also see www.ft.com/houseprices

www.acadametrics.co.uk